SrednaD wrote: icthalian wrote: You're looking good Christy. Not looking forward to seeing you again next season! You should be pleased. Having a numbers-gut like Christy in the division is great! And besides, you still have a remote chance (a bit lower than Hillary Clinton being president) that I could be promoting... Christy will be missed - I am sure of that, but his campaign this season has been phenomenal!

First time I have gone above 12 wins in this division. Every season I have been in this division 15 wins has been enough but not so this time.

You have never let me really pull away with your own strong campaign. I was worried when you came into our division, relaxed when I thrashed you and have become steadily more worried since then.

My defense seems to have really stepped up this season to give me a good year. The offense was there already really but that is all down to the ages of the offense and defense.

I can try and get the sheet working as a Google sheet. I can also trim out a few things to make it easier to keep updated. I would love to see how numbers compare between divisions but don't have the time. Even between seasons has been interesting.

I would like to swap ideas. I will have a look back at the season 16 top div thread at lunch today.

Any loss in a season like this will be frustrating. Especially one that close. I am aware of the pain of a 3 point loss. The other set me up nicely in terms of pd difference and happened first.

You will likely be heavy favourites for promotion next season depending on who drops.

Wow!, today my defenders were doped. They have made eight sacks

So I want to do a post on each of the 9 teams and how they got on statistically this season. I will do most during the offseason as we still have a game left. A few points first. I recently noticed how much consistency is needed to win a division.

Very unlikely or very likely events tend to have a higher variance as if you only expect something to happen 3 times a game then it only happening 2 is a big relative change that could be decided on a single play.

Events that have little opportunity to happen are subject to large variances. As above it means something is only expected to happen a few times so that any deviation is a big deal. A small variation that be caused by a single play. Essentially if you flip a coin twice the odds of two heads (which is not the expected result) is much higher than flipping a coin 1000 times and getting all heads.

So breaking tackles is a prime target for variability being unlikely and you only get the chance on a reception. Take a glance at individual matches in my stats and this bears out. Breaking tackles is great but an extra big td can change can add a few percent. Note that high variance just means the stat tends to bounce around a bigger range. Not that it can't be predicted or you can't change your odds.

Of course if you can't break tackles at all it limits your offense as this variability works both ways. Still it means a championship team should be able to get scores through hard graft without the broken tackles. If your opponent gets good luck on offense they will break tackles. Limit the rest of their scores though and suddenly you are in with a shout while getting unlucky.

Completion % (discounting pressures) is the other end of the spectrum with 40+ pass attempts and generally 50-60% completion rate. Pressures are in between. They could be involved in any play but are relatively rare events (~10%). I realised I have been recording the stats to see who is overly reliant on big yardage TDs or scoring without breaking tackles without compiling them properly. Obviously you want to be good at both but it should be interesting to see what the breakdown is.

Then there are stats that lean on the defense or offense more for their success rate. Completions seem to depend more on the offense. Tackles made on the defense. That is not to say that a good defense can't stop completions, just that how much they can do is limited. Pressures is fairly evenly distributed between how much an offense and a defense affects the number of pressures from what I have seen.
Last edited on 2017-02-02 at 23:06

Gatr22 wrote: Christy wrote: So I want to do a post on each of the 9 teams and how they got on statistically this season. I will do most during the offseason as we still have a game left. A few points first. I recently noticed how much consistency is needed to win a division. Very unlikely or very likely events tend to have a higher variance as if you only expect something to happen 3 times a game then it only happening 2 is a big relative change that could be decided on a single play. Events that have little opportunity to happen are subject to large variances. As above it means something is only expected to happen a few times so that any deviation is a big deal. A small variation that be caused by a single play. Essentially if you flip a coin twice the odds of two heads (which is not the expected result) is much higher than flipping a coin 1000 times and getting all heads. So breaking tackles is a prime target for variability being unlikely and you only get the chance on a reception. Take a glance at individual matches in my stats and this bears out. Breaking tackles is great but an extra big td can change can add a few percent. Note that high variance just means the stat tends to bounce around a bigger range. Not that it can't be predicted or you can't change your odds. Of course if you can't break tackles at all it limits your offense as this variability works both ways. Still it means a championship team should be able to get scores through hard graft without the broken tackles. If your opponent gets good luck on offense they will break tackles. Limit the rest of their scores though and suddenly you are in with a shout while getting unlucky. Completion % (discounting pressures) is the other end of the spectrum with 40+ pass attempts and generally 50-60% completion rate. Pressures are in between. They could be involved in any play but are relatively rare events (~10%). I realised I have been recording the stats to see who is overly reliant on big yardage TDs or scoring without breaking tackles without compiling them properly. Obviously you want to be good at both but it should be interesting to see what the breakdown is. Then there are stats that lean on the defense or offense more for their success rate. Completions seem to depend more on the offense. Tackles made on the defense. That is not to say that a good defense can't stop completions, just that how much they can do is limited. Pressures is fairly evenly distributed between them from what I have seen. Very interesting stuff. I would just suggest that pressures/sacks are actually dominated by the DE's as compared to the LBs. Maybe I misunderstood you, but having tracked these stats, among others, for many seasons in the NA TD, the DE's run away with this stat. I'd be happy to send you the leaders stats for entire seasons. I think 10% as a team is fair for the average team, but your beasts on the line (both DEs together) should get in about 16% average per game if you are among the leaders in your TD. That would be just your DEs, so together with LBs, a tad bit higher.

Rereading it I was unclear. I meant the number of pressures is affected a lot by both the offense and defense. Unlike say completions (discounting plays involving pressure) which depends more on the offense than the defense so that a good offense will have a good completion rate and average pressure rate but a bad offense with a bad defense will have a bad completion rate with an average rate of pressures.

Did you peak at the stats:p. I am sitting at 15.62% right now. The Bulls are leading the league at 19.16%.

I will happily take those stats. I can pm you an email address?