Christy wrote: Gatr22 wrote: Christy wrote: So I want to do a post on each of the 9 teams and how they got on statistically this season. I will do most during the offseason as we still have a game left. A few points first. I recently noticed how much consistency is needed to win a division. Very unlikely or very likely events tend to have a higher variance as if you only expect something to happen 3 times a game then it only happening 2 is a big relative change that could be decided on a single play. Events that have little opportunity to happen are subject to large variances. As above it means something is only expected to happen a few times so that any deviation is a big deal. A small variation that be caused by a single play. Essentially if you flip a coin twice the odds of two heads (which is not the expected result) is much higher than flipping a coin 1000 times and getting all heads. So breaking tackles is a prime target for variability being unlikely and you only get the chance on a reception. Take a glance at individual matches in my stats and this bears out. Breaking tackles is great but an extra big td can change can add a few percent. Note that high variance just means the stat tends to bounce around a bigger range. Not that it can't be predicted or you can't change your odds. Of course if you can't break tackles at all it limits your offense as this variability works both ways. Still it means a championship team should be able to get scores through hard graft without the broken tackles. If your opponent gets good luck on offense they will break tackles. Limit the rest of their scores though and suddenly you are in with a shout while getting unlucky. Completion % (discounting pressures) is the other end of the spectrum with 40+ pass attempts and generally 50-60% completion rate. Pressures are in between. They could be involved in any play but are relatively rare events (~10%). I realised I have been recording the stats to see who is overly reliant on big yardage TDs or scoring without breaking tackles without compiling them properly. Obviously you want to be good at both but it should be interesting to see what the breakdown is. Then there are stats that lean on the defense or offense more for their success rate. Completions seem to depend more on the offense. Tackles made on the defense. That is not to say that a good defense can't stop completions, just that how much they can do is limited. Pressures is fairly evenly distributed between them from what I have seen. Very interesting stuff. I would just suggest that pressures/sacks are actually dominated by the DE's as compared to the LBs. Maybe I misunderstood you, but having tracked these stats, among others, for many seasons in the NA TD, the DE's run away with this stat. I'd be happy to send you the leaders stats for entire seasons. I think 10% as a team is fair for the average team, but your beasts on the line (both DEs together) should get in about 16% average per game if you are among the leaders in your TD. That would be just your DEs, so together with LBs, a tad bit higher. Rereading it I was unclear. I meant the number of pressures is affected a lot by both the offense and defense. Unlike say completions (discounting plays involving pressure) which depends more on the offense than the defense so that a good offense will have a good completion rate and average pressure rate but a bad offense with a bad defense will have a bad completion rate with an average rate of pressures. Did you peak at the stats:p. I am sitting at 15.62% right now. The Bulls are leading the league at 19.16%. I will happily take those stats. I can pm you an email address?

I'm at work, so I don't have the stats in front of me. I was going by memory. I think between DEs and LBs, you can actually close in on 25%, which is huge, because basically, you are taking away several drives per game as a result. Those stats you listed sound more reasonable for top tier teams from the bookends. Sure, pm me the address and I can send you data if you're interested. I probably have 4-5 seasons worth. I used to post them with links in one of the threads on here, so you could probably still view any of the mid-season or end of season reports here if you would prefer. Somewhere in the NA TD season threads.

Cambers wrote: Awesome, look forward to it! I don't get on much but always look at our league forum, love the analysis you do. Kinda hoping miracles happen and I beat you on Sat to keep you in the division :-)

Maybe next time don't bot your offense.

It is a testament to your defense that it was about 20 minutes before I noticed and the match was still incredibly close.

Congrats to the Pros

tough league to get out of and a hard season and close finish

look forward to playing you next season.. well sort of

Coops

Christy wrote: Cambers wrote: Awesome, look forward to it! I don't get on much but always look at our league forum, love the analysis you do. Kinda hoping miracles happen and I beat you on Sat to keep you in the division :-) Maybe next time don't bot your offense. It is a testament to your defense that it was about 20 minutes before I noticed and the match was still incredibly close.

Awkward

Congrats on the promotion!!

Thanks for the support people. Final stats of the season https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xuCnk1OweXBwD_fwNbgyWwhOAiP3VDuKgee9i9Ih7fs/edit?usp=sharing

First in the series I will go with a team that proved my initial predictions wrong. I will try keep a semi regular update of these to get through them all before next season.

Olivos Borrachos: Just about avoided relegation with issues on both defense and offense. In fairness they are growing and I am sure will improve if they can stay in the league. However I just have the stats for this season but I am aware that they should be happy next season with survival.

Offense: under 27 points a game is not going to get a team anywhere. Starting with the offensive line. 12.09% pressures is less than average and a key point to their offense. A good start for a team like this with room to improve as well. Once their receivers get the ball they can also use it with a broken tackle rate of 35.6%. As I said, this stat is more down to the defense than the offense but the receivers are still involved. 35.6% is above teams like the Bulls, Nantes and Gnomes. What kills this offense is the completion rate from Manilo Conte. Even with time in the pocket Conte only manages a completion rate of 43% - the lowest in the league. Their overall completion rate sits at 38.37% (as in 38.37% of pass plays involve a completion, including sacks/pressures) which is the 1st of the new columns. The second tells us how many plays result in a TD involving broken tackles the team scored. Essentially the probability that a play will end up in the endzone no matter where the ball is. For Olivos it is 4.86%, lower than average but massively so and most teams are between 5%-6% so not bad. The third is what percentage of drives resulted in a TD that involved broken tackles. This is mostly to see dependence on broken tackles really. 19.68% for Olivos which again is only slightly below average and not a big deal. Finally the last new column is what percentage of drives WITHOUT broken tackles result in TDs. Essentially what percentage of the time would we expect the side to score if they never get a broken tackle. Here it is 15.89% which is far below the league average of 25.86% and even the 3rd lowest in the league (Nantes at 23.85%). This comes from a poor completion rate making it hard to keep a drive going. The basic stats of scores and yards look terrible but if they can sort out that completion rate with a good QB than that offense will hit league average.

Defense: 485 yards and 43 points conceded a game are not really sustainable if Olivos want to stay in this league for long. Granted some of these have been affected by their style of offense which results in a lot of drives. Conceding a TD on just under 50% of drives is not however. Conceding on 12.1% of plays is not good but not horrific. The first problem on defense is a league low 6.88% pressure on the QB. Allowing 54% completion rate when the QB gets a decent chance to pass is about average but I am unsure just how much the defense can affect that. It is not a weakness at least. Missing 39% of thir tackles is a bit above avarege. As I said this stat is a bit swingy so this isn't woeful but they will certainly want to decrease it a good bit. The total completion rate they have allowed opponents is 50.45% is definitely a weakness. 7.77% of plays against them result in a TD involving broken tackles and so would be a score from anywhere is the result of the high completion rate and a low tackle rate. 31.94% of drives against the defense result in a broken tackle TD, which just cuts out so much risk for the offense. Need to force them to make more completions for each score really. In spite of the high completion rate against them only 26% of the remaining drives result in a TD which is about league average. I am curious about that and wonder if their special teams means opposing teams need a lot of yards (and completions) for a score?

Stars: Padilla was the best of their receivers scoring 14.49% of the time he was targeted leaving him 9th in the league which is credible. Especially with Conte's poor completion rate. Breaks 37% of their tackles and caught 52.17% of passes targeted at him (far above the QB's general completion rate). Conte definitely did not do enough to be a star and will need improvement. Drago Bacic Not exactly a world ending 5.12% of plays broken up but it is certainly around average for a DE.